Instinct versus facts
"Your experience tells you one thing, the facts tell you another. Which one do you follow?"
By Fred Koury
August 2006
We have all heard the expressions should’ve, could’ve, would’ve, if only and next time. These all point to wanting another chance in how we handled a particular situation.
There are two ways to make decisions — by gut instinct, or by carefully studying all of the facts.
Gut instinct is really a function of experience. The more something has worked for you in the past, the more likely you are to use the same strategy again in the future. Sometimes you can use both methods and come up with two different courses of action.
For example, before the stock market fell dramatically in 2001, something told me to sell a number of the stocks that I owned. I knew they were overinflated, but I didn’t listen to my gut.
The facts at the time told me that the chance of the market falling and losing billions of dollars of market cap was highly unlikely. I thought there would be enough time to see the signs before the market crumbled, but there wasn’t.
As a result, I suffered substantial losses and continue to ask myself why I didn’t listen to my gut instincts.
While facts and data provide the reasoning behind the majority of your decisions, sometimes you just have to follow your instincts. Here are three guidelines for doing so.
- Don’t force it. Instincts come naturally. If you have to ponder for days whether something is really the right move, then your instincts aren’t clear.
- Strike when the opportunity presents itself. Getting the facts to back up your instincts is prudent, but there are situations that require speed. Waiting for supporting data isn’t always an option. If your instincts say go for it, then make the move.
- Don’t let fear of past mistakes cripple your decision-making. Even the best business leaders in the world aren’t right 100 percent of the time. Sometimes your instincts will be wrong. Learn why you were incorrect in a particular situation, then move on. Don’t let past errors scare you into missing future opportunities.
The easiest decisions in business are those in which your gut instincts and the facts point to the same course of action. The tough calls come when those two things point in opposite directions.
When that happens, take careful measure of all the factors, but sometimes, you just have to trust your gut.
