Why leaders can’t lead: Strategic insight is a rare commodity, so try a different path

Everywhere you turn, business and other organizational leaders are exhorted to “lead!” That usually means, at least in part, to go up to a high place (their corner office), look out over the landscape (the market) and point the way like Moses to the Promised Land (the next big thing).
In reality, few individuals have the perspicacity to see what is needed before it is already pretty much at hand. Remember the oft-quoted example of hockey great Wayne Gretzky, when asked for the source of his success: “I skate to where the puck is going to be.” We all wish we could do that, and more to the point, this is what boards of directors, shareholders, customers and employees expect of leaders. That it is unrealistic is beside the point.
What to do?
So, if most individuals will not be able to reliably point their organizations in the right direction, what is a CEO to do? The time-honored solution is to engage the management team in the same process. The assumption seems to be that if several smart, talented people with diverse perspectives and portfolios come together their shared trip to the mountaintop will yield a better view of the future.
Leaders who are less process-oriented often choose an alternative approach. They send staff out to gather mountains of data on customer behavior, past trends, competitors, etc., looking for a right answer amid the conflicting data points. Neither of these methods has proven more reliable than the first one described above.
The fact of the matter is that strategic insight, leading to correct directional choices, leading in turn to well-designed and well-implemented initiatives, is exceedingly rare. Big bets often fall short and when they do, well, let’s just remember that when a sports team has a really bad season the owner doesn’t fire the players, he fires the coach.
Try smaller experiments
This leads me to counsel clients in unstable markets (which includes most of us) to use a method of successive approximation. Rather than placing everything on one big insight, however it is arrived at, try a continual series of smaller experiments.
Remember: pilot before you pivot. This will allow you to see how hard the new idea is to implement, to look for the market’s reaction, and to scout-out managers and employees who will champion the new idea.
This approach may not be as dramatic or sexy as the sudden leap to a big insight but in a less-than-certain environment, it allows you to discover more quickly and at less expense where the truly promising ideas lay. Because in the end most of us, if we are very lucky, will be not a full leap ahead of the market but just a step, and that is enough to be a truly successful leader.