Looking to the future, every business can benefit by seeing what the trends are in the energy market and how those trends ultimately may affect business. As societies advance, they will continue to need energy to power homes, business, industry, transportation and other services.
By assessing the trends in energy supply, demand and technology, companies can make strategic plans and long-term investments that underpin their business strategy. Several key findings are relevant for all companies to consider when looking at macroeconomic views of the energy markets. This view must not only look at today, but years in advance.
One basic theme is that the appetite for energy will grow immensely as everything will be more electronic and driven by where we get energy from. Companies need to assess their growth strategy to suit their present needs and future consumption.
Here are some fundamentals:
Population: The population between now and 2040 will grow by 25 percent. In 2040, we will have almost 9 billion people on earth and it is anticipated that 75 percent of the world’s population will reside in the Asia Pacific and Africa. A country’s working age population, people ages 15 to 64, represents the driver for its economic growth and energy demand. After 2030, India will have the largest population, and 70 percent of its population will be in the working age population range.
Energy: Efficiency will continue to play a key role in solving our energy challenges. Energy demands in developing nations will rise by 65 percent by 2040, reflecting growing prosperity and expanding economies. With all of this growth comes a greater demand for electricity.
Computers, smartphones, air conditioners, microwaves and washing machines — these things all depend on electricity to work. And as the number of homes and businesses across the world grows, so does the need for power. The fuels we use to power our world are also evolving, with natural gas and nuclear power generation in non-OECD countries increasing by 150 percent.
Residential: As economies and populations grow, so will energy needs. By 2040, residential and commercial demand is expected to rise approximately 50 percent.
This is being driven by developing countries. There are about 1.3 billion people today who do not have access to electricity, and while demand is anticipated to increase by 50 percent, energy use per person is actually declining thanks to energy-efficient buildings and appliances.
Transportation: Transportation-related energy demand will increase by more than 40 percent from 2010 to 2040. Most of this demand is driven by heavy-duty sources (freight trucks, buses, emergency vehicles and work trucks), but as personal vehicles are becoming significantly more energy-efficient, the demand will rise steadily.
More importantly, mpg will become more attractive, with anticipated mpg to increase from 27 to 47 mpg. The mpg increase is attributed to the use of improved engines and transmissions, along with lighter body and accessory parts, vehicle downsizing and increased use of hybrids.
Industrial: Industrial energy demand will grow by 30 percent. The fastest growing area for industrial demand comes from heavy industries. The most flourishing is the chemical industry.
These global considerations are important as you look to the future to find those things from a macroeconomic basis that should have an impact on your business. It is necessary to find a series of relevant statistics that will help you identify early warning indicators of what you should do in terms of product development and industry growth.
Matthew P. Figgie is chairman of Clark-Reliance, a global, multi-divisional manufacturing company with sales in more than 80 countries, serving the power generation petroleum, refining and chemical processing industries. He is also chairman of Figgie Capital and the Figgie Foundation, a member of the University Hospitals Board of Directors, corporate co-chairman for the 2013 Five Star Sensation and chairman of the National Kidney Walk.
Rick Solon is president and CEO of Clark-Reliance and has more than 35 years of experience in manufacturing and operating companies. He is also the chairman of the National Kidney Foundation Golf Outing.