As the U.S. economy continues to falter, unemployment has never been such an influencing factor since the Great Depression. Unemployment stands at between 12 percent and 15 percent, not the 9 percent you hear every day. That number is based on government statistics that come from people registering for unemployment. In reality, it is estimated that there are as many 25 million people who are currently unemployed.
The average monthly paycheck is $3,500. The average monthly unemployment check is $1,000. That means it costs the government as much as $50 billion each month in lost payroll taxes and paid unemployment benefits. The question then becomes, “How does the future look for job seekers, employers and the economy as a whole?” Also, “How does the HR and talent management industry react to the constantly changing landscape during these uncertain times?”
Many manufacturing jobs are simply gone forever. They are not coming back, either as a result of outsourcing overseas or because certain sectors have become obsolete or uneconomic from a production standpoint. Today, more than 50 percent of consumer goods — from semiconductors to washing machines — are manufactured outside of the U.S., and that trend continues to increase. At the same time, new industries are emerging, which are very much technology-driven but will take time to develop their full potential, especially as it relates to employment.
As a result, many companies are outsourcing their help desks and customer service activities to countries like India, which is having the effect of creating something of an unemployable labor pool in the U.S., due to a lack of job training and/or education.
So what this means is that for as far as the eye can see, we risk having a permanent unemployment rate of between 8 percent and 10 percent, compared to what was previously the norm of between 3 percent and 5 percent.
Looking to the future, the private sector of the U.S. economy is going to be far more dependent on service industries than manufacturing. Therefore, the human capital of industry must be re-educated and re-trained to meet this new criteria. Initially, it will be a painful transition that probably will get much worse before it gets better.
Human resource managers are now looking at significant changes in their hiring practices in an effort to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Due to the uncertain economic outlook, companies are relying more on temporary staffing than full-time employees. Fewer companies are outsourcing their search requirements and are scanning the job boards and going to social networks, such as LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and cloud computing to identify job applicants — from CEOs to entry-level trainees. This, in turn, has required talent management firms, such as ours, to essentially reinvent themselves.
No more brick-and-mortar office space. Outsourcing of consultants and virtual delivery has become the norm. And, many client companies have decided not to provide outplacement services when they plan a reduction in their work force.
The retained search business has also become a victim of these changes. Ancillary services, such as executive coaching and leadership development programs, have been put on hold by many employers indefinitely.
As a result, our company, ECS, has adopted something of a hybrid approach that incorporates a hi-tech/hi-touch delivery system, providing the best of both worlds to the candidate, including high-quality virtual programs as well as the more personal one-on-one consultation.
Today, the industry is becoming more sophisticated in the development of online career centers and interactive webinars. Consolidation has also begun to create economies of scale. All of the changes now allow candidates a choice to develop their job search from home by accessing the selected service providers’ website, as well as select online certified job training programs. This change has been slow in coming but is now more the rule that the exception. As such, more focus is being given to alternative careers relative to preferred training options and home office environments.
This will not be an overnight recovery. We anticipate unemployment will continue at between 8 percent and 10 percent well into 2012. Political uncertainty, along with tightening of bank credit, concern about higher taxes and the unknowns of health care reform, virtually guarantee it.
Most people in this country want to work and be successful. If we can combine this desire with a re-education program where we have round pegs in round holes, we really can “win the future.”
A viable solution is creating a task force composed of management, government, labor, educators and HR professionals. This group could begin the process of industrial renewal that will put us on a path toward rebuilding our labor pool into a more practical, sustainable level that will launch us into the 21st century and beyond.
In this land of opportunity, there is room for everyone to succeed in their own way. That’s what makes America great.
Peter Munson is managing partner of Executive Career Services. Reach him at email@example.com or (310) 442-7734.
Spending on unemployment compensation is at an all-time high, jumping from approximately $31 billion in 2008 to $120 billion in 2009, $160 billion in 2010 and a projected $120 billion for 2011. Numerous states, including Ohio, have depleted their unemployment compensation trust funds and have had to borrow from the federal government.
“Ohio employers have seen modest increases in their state unemployment taxes over the last few years as automatic triggers kicked in to try to keep the fund solvent. However, the increases just haven’t been enough to stay ahead of the benefits paid out,” says Anthonio C. Fiore, an attorney with Kegler, Brown, Hill & Ritter.
Eventually, the federal government will look to Ohio employers to replenish their fund through higher contributions or taxes. To keep the costs to employers from growing ever higher, Fiore says the state and its employers must work to reform the unemployment compensation system in Ohio and get people re-employed.
Smart Business spoke with Fiore about the tasks at hand.
What is the status of Ohio’s unemployment compensation (UC) trust fund?
Employers pay into both the state and federal unemployment compensation trust funds. Solvency of the state’s UC trust fund had been a growing concern for a number of years, but it finally moved into the red in January 2009. Ohio currently owes the federal government over $2.6 billion for loans from the Federal Unemployment Account (FUA) — commonly referred to as Title XII loans.
How does the situation in Ohio compare to that in other states?
Ohio is in the same boat as many other states. The highest unemployment in nearly three decades is spread across the U.S. and very few counties and states have been immune. State unemployment taxes increased as a percent of total wages on average by 34 percent from 2009 to 2010 and are expected to increase even more for 2011 and 2012.
As of Sept. 1, 2011, 27 states and the Virgin Islands have outstanding federal loans of over $36 billion. The United States Department of Labor (USDOL) projects a peak in 2013 of up to 40 states and $65.2 billion in outstanding loans. Interest on loans is charged at the rate of just over 4 percent for 2011. Approximately $1.7 billion will need to be paid from sources other than the state unemployment insurance (UI) tax — employers in 19 states (not including Ohio) will pay a special assessment to cover this cost. The first interest payment from states is due September 30, 2011, and interest will continue to accrue as long as loans are outstanding.
State and federal unemployment taxes will continue to increase over the next three years and remain at higher rates for at least 10 years on average. Average UI taxes will more than double with some employers experiencing much higher tax increases as a percentage of total wages. Increased taxes will increase the cost of hiring. Increased duration of unemployment compensation will continue to be a disincentive to individuals deciding whether to actively seek and accept work available in the labor market. Relief from automatic Title XII interest and Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUTA) offset credit penalties is possible only if states, businesses and workers push for them. States with no debt may be less supportive of relief, arguing that they have already addressed solvency and did not get relief.
How long will it take Ohio to get its fund solvent once again?
The goal is not simply to pay back the $2.6 billion to the federal government. The goal is to replenish the fund to what is called ‘minimum safe level’ in order for it to weather future economic downturns. The minimum safe level is around $2.5 billion; therefore the state UI fund is approximately $5 billion away from where it needs to be in the future. It could take three to five years to get the fund back to this level.
How can Ohio get the fund back to solvency?
Obviously, the best case scenario is finding a way to get more individuals employed, so fewer individuals are collecting unemployment. That would help Ohio rebuild the fund the fastest, versus raising employer taxes. In terms of direct costs to companies, businesses can work with third-party claims administrators and/or an attorney to more aggressively manage their claims to eradicate fraudulent claims and overpayments. The state itself is taking numerous proactive efforts and is focusing on ways to reform Ohio’s unemployment compensation system, keep businesses in Ohio, attract new companies to Ohio, and get Ohioans re-employed.
How will developments at the federal level impact Ohio?
Pending legislation (H.R. 1745, also known as the Jobs Act) would reform aspects of the unemployment system. Ohio would benefit from some of the reforms that are being advocated by a broad coalition of national and state business associations. One of these is a requirement that would strengthen job search requirements for those receiving unemployment. In addition, President Obama recently released the ‘American JOBS Act’ with several provisions affecting unemployment compensation. While some provisions of the proposal have merit there is still uncertainty surrounding what price tag will be levied on those who fully fund the system — employers. The current system was developed in the 1930s and was not set up for the situation the country is currently in. Reforms would focus on getting people re-employed faster and into the jobs that are available.
ANTHONIO C. FIORE is an attorney with Kegler, Brown, Hill & Ritter. Reach him at (614) 462-5428 or firstname.lastname@example.org.