Volatility in the marketplace can have a significant impact on investors’ accounts and psychology.
But while many people think of volatility as a negative, there is an upside, says John Micklitsch, CFA, director of wealth management at Ancora Advisors LLC.
“For those who are still accumulating and investing in the market on a regular basis, volatility to the downside can create buying opportunities and the ability to buy shares on weakness,” says Micklitsch. “However, if you’re at a point in your life where you’re done adding to your account, volatility can be very frustrating and emotionally challenging.”
Smart Business spoke with Micklitsch about why the markets are so volatile right now and how to approach the market in this environment.
What is volatility?
Like everything there is a technical and a practical definition of volatility. To most people, however, volatility is a change in the value of their investment accounts from one measurable period to the next. Generally speaking, volatility is associated with risk.
Why are today’s markets so volatile?
It goes back to the globalization of the world economy. It used to be that what happened in a small country such as Greece, stayed in Greece. But today, everything is linked. Financial institutions hold sovereign bonds to facilitate worldwide trade and then hedge positions with other global financial institutions and incur counterparty risk. Corporations generate earnings from all over the world and now investors can trade in just about any market with the click of a mouse or tap of a smartphone. It’s all linked and it is in our face all the time with the 24 hour news cycle. For a long time, globalization has been a good thing, but lately it seems we are only as strong as the weakest link. Add in the uneasiness associated with huge, unresolved global debt levels and you can begin to see why markets have been so volatile.
Is volatility the new normal for investors?
Volatility in many ways, is the norm for now. We are in a period of relatively low returns in both the equity and fixed income markets due to sluggish economies. Buy and hold investors are frustrated. As a result there is tremendous pressure on managers to generate returns for clients with many now resorting to trading in an attempt to generate returns. There are inverse and leveraged vehicles that allow investors to turn risk ‘on’ and ‘off’ in their portfolio throughout virtually every minute of the day. Until we get sustained improvement in the economy this in and out activity is going to be the norm. The IRS and brokers will be happy, but it is less clear how investors will fair.
How should investors approach a volatile market?
The best way to approach today’s volatility, like anything, is to have a plan. Every investor should know how much of their portfolio they want to have in a given asset class and the potential volatility of their overall asset allocation. Then, when volatility soars they can dial into that plan to see just how much their actual allocations have deviated from their target percentages and whether reallocating or rebalancing is necessary. By having that plan in place, a touchstone if you will, investors are more likely to stay the course, as opposed to falling into that ‘just sell everything’ mentality. We think it is best to work with a financial professional to create long-term targets that are appropriate for your risk tolerance and your stage in life because they have the tools to help you model risk.
How often should that plan be reviewed?
The plan should be a living, breathing reflection of your goals and objectives at any particular moment in time. You should work closely with your advisers to update them on your changing risk profile and needs. If your risk profile changes and it is not reflected in your investment allocation, your portfolio might be more volatile than is appropriate. That could lead to making poor decisions at a market cycle bottom or in a period of particularly high volatility. Taking a few minutes to regularly review your plan can reassure you just enough to avoid making a 100 percent move to the sidelines, because then the challenge becomes deciding when to get back in, an error that could compound the situation.
What advice would you give to investors in this market?
There is a tendency for people to find safety and security in a stock market characterized by high prices. Although it is counterintuitive, the lower the stock market goes the safer it becomes from a margin of safety standpoint.
To reverse that basic decision-making apparatus and embrace lower prices is really the key to long term investing success. The only time volatility is not something to take advantage of is when you are done accumulating shares. At that point in life, you should probably have a more conservatively positioned portfolio that is not as highly impacted by market swings. All of this can seem overwhelming, which is why it is important to work with a professional adviser who can help you plan for and manage volatility in your portfolio.
John Micklitsch, CFA, is the director of wealth management, as well as an Investment Advisor representative, of Ancora Advisors LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Reach him at (216) 593-5074 or [email protected].
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